Ground Motion Prediction Equation (GMPE) For Semarang City Based On Earthquake Data From 2019 - 2024

Addlin Ridho Pramana, Gatot Yuliyanto, Udi Harmoko, Muhammad Irham Nurwidyanto

Abstract


This study aims to develop a Ground Motion Prediction Equation (GMPE) that accuratelyrepresents the seismotectonic characteristics and local geological conditions of Semarang City,Indonesia, based on earthquake data recorded from 2019 to 2024. Approximately 16,000 earthquakeevents obtained from the Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics (BMKG)were analyzed to identify source mechanisms, magnitude, depth, and hypocentral distance. Theempirical GMPE proposed by Sharma (2008) was adopted as the baseline model, establishing alogarithmic relationship among peak ground acceleration (PGA), magnitude (M), and sourcedistance (R). Residual analysis revealed that the baseline model tends to overestimate PGA at shortdistances and underestimate it for small-magnitude events. To improve predictive performance, themodel was modified by incorporating a non-linear variation term accounting for magnitude anddistance effects. The modified GMPE achieved improved performance with R2=0.8949 and RMSE= 0.3294, demonstrating a closer fit between predicted and observed PGA values. Overall, thedeveloped GMPE provides a more accurate representation of ground motion attenuation and siteeffects in Semarang’s complex geological setting. These findings highlight the importance of locallycalibrated GMPEs for enhancing seismic hazard estimation and supporting earthquake-resistanturban planning across Indonesia

Keywords


GMPE, Semarang, Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA), Multivariate Regression, And Residual Analysis.

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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.52155/ijpsat.v53.2.7593

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